Thursday, January 31, 2019

Transitioning old oil rigs into permanent reefs

Offshore oil platforms have an immense presence, physically, financially and environmentally. Some 6,000 rigs pump petroleum and natural gas worldwide. But as they extract hydrocarbons from deep beneath the sea, these structures undergo a transformation invisible from above the waves. The ocean claims the platforms' enormous substructures and converts them into vertical reefs, home to millions of individual plants and animals.

While decommissioning a platform is a tall order, a growing number have found new purpose as human-made reefs. Now, researchers at UC Santa Barbara have published a comprehensive study of the history, ecology and pragmatics of rigs-to-reefs efforts in the journal Ocean and Coastal Management.

In addition to assembling information from across a large corpus of work, the scientists hope the study will help inform California residents and policymakers as they decide what to do with platforms slated for retirement off its coast.

"California citizens are going to have to make decisions about the continued existence of vast marine life under the platforms, and they should be informed decisions," said Ann Scarborough Bull, a researcher at UC Santa Barbara's Marine Science Institute (MSI) and the paper's lead author. This issue will return time and again across the world as platforms age and existing oil fields wind down production.

Scarborough Bull served for nearly 30 years as an environmental analyst and researcher in the Department of the Interior's Minerals Management Service, now the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. She joined UC Santa Barbara after retiring as the agency's chief of environmental sciences for the West Coast.

In 2017, organizers of an industry summit on oil well decommissioning invited Scarborough Bull to speak on the science behind transitioning platforms into permanent reefs. At the time, she found that literature on the topic was rudimentary and fragmented. After joining the university, Bull decided to compile the scattered information into a seminal article, to which she added the results of her own extensive research.

"As far as we know, the paper is the first of its kind," said research biologist Milton Love, also at MSI, who co-authored the study with Scarborough Bull.

An Ecological Oddity

There's little doubt that the petroleum coming from these platforms has a negative impact on the environment. And the possibility for destructive oil spills always exists when oil production and water mix. The risks may be minimized if the work is done properly, but the consequences of an accident are still quite high. "Oil spills are terrible events," said Scarborough Bull, "and if you put in a platform and you drill and produce oil, you always have some level of risk."

However, these hulking structures, rising hundreds of feet from the ocean floor, provide a unique habitat. The complex shape of the rig's support creates a 3-dimensional reef for animals to colonize and live near. And the rig's open construction allows currents to pass through, bringing nutrients.

"We say, 'oh, we'll turn these platforms into reefs,'" said Love, "but as far as the marine life is concerned, they already are reefs."

In 2014, Scarborough Bull and Love collaborated with colleagues at Occidental College to assess the biological productivity of oil rigs off the coast of California. Using standard models and metrics, the team compared the platforms to all the other habitats they could find information on. The results of the study were staggering. "Platforms off of California, as far as fish were concerned, were the most productive habitats in the world," recalled Love.

"More productive than coral reefs, more productive than Chesapeake Bay," he continued. "Now does that mean that they are truly the most productive? Well, we don't know. But based on the world literature at that time, they were the most productive habitat."

Perspectives on rigs-to-reefs efforts vary across country and ideology. Those with a preservationist mindset want to restore the site to its original condition. The European Union currently follows this policy and all decommissioned platforms in the EU must be removed completely. Meanwhile the practice of reefing old platforms is now routine in the Gulf of Mexico. As of 2016, over 11 percent of decommissioned platforms in the U.S. portion of the gulf were transitioned into permanent reefs, according to Scarborough Bull. The region currently has over 500 rig-reefs, not including those that are still part of active platforms.

The oil companies stand to benefit from reefing old platforms, but some conservationists, fishermen and state governments have also found reason to support this trend. "In the Gulf of Mexico, when you go fishing, you motor up to a platform and tie directly to it," said Scarborough Bull, who spent 12 years in the region. "There's a different societal thinking about the use and usefulness of parts of platforms that you don't have in California."

A Daunting Task

Decommissioning a platform typically involves its complete removal from the seafloor, then hauling it away for disposal or scrap. It's a pricy proposition. The most recent estimate for removing all platforms off of the California coast totals $8 billion, Scarborough Bull said. Modifying the platforms to serve as permanent reefs cuts these costs significantly, especially those associated with hauling, cleaning and disposing of the support structure on shore, which will have thousands of tons of sea-life clinging to it by the time it reaches retirement.

To convert the lower portion of the platform into a permanent reef, the structure must be free of any hydrocarbons or other hazardous materials described in any federal, state or local law, ordinance, rule, regulation, order, decree or requirement. Yet this is still a far cheaper venture than total removal. And the savings don't merely benefit the oil company, which foots 100 percent of the decommissioning cost. Coastal states that have rigs-to-reefs laws require that the company share with the state a portion of the money it will save if a platform is reefed rather than removed; often 50 percent of the cost savings, explained Scarborough Bull.

What's more, the reef and nearby surrounding waters belong to the state and fall under its jurisdiction, even if the platform had been in federal water before it was retired. Twenty-three platforms slated for decommission off the California coast are in federal waters and one, Platform Holly, is in state waters, but deep enough to be considered for reefing.

The state assumes title and responsibility for the site once the reef is established, which includes taking the proper steps to prevent the reef from becoming a shipping hazard. This involves recording the location on charts and installing buoys to warn of any navigational hazards, depending on how close the reef comes to the surface. The study discusses these practical considerations at length, important factors when deciding how to retire old platforms.

"Decisions are going to have to be made about more and more of these structures," said Love. "We want everyone to have the same facts as they go into the process so decisions can be made on a rational basis."



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European waters drive ocean overturning, key for regulating climate


A new international study finds that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), a deep-ocean process that plays a key role in regulating Earth's climate, is primarily driven by cooling waters west of Europe.

In a departure from the prevailing scientific view, the study shows that most of the overturning and variability is occurring not in the Labrador Sea off Canada, as past modeling studies have suggested, but in regions between Greenland and Scotland. There, warm, salty, shallow waters carried northward from the tropics by currents and wind, sink and convert into colder, fresher, deep waters moving southward through the Irminger and Iceland basins.

Overturning variability in this eastern section of the ocean was seven times greater than in the Labrador Sea, and it accounted for 88 percent of the total variance documented across the entire North Atlantic over the 21-month study period.

These findings, unexpected as they may be, can help scientists better predict what changes might occur to the MOC and what the climate impacts of those changes will be, said Susan Lozier, the Ronie-Rochele Garcia-Johnson Professor of Earth and Ocean Sciences at Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment.

"To aid predictions of climate in the years and decades ahead, we need to know where this deep overturning is currently taking place and what is causing it to vary," said Lozier, who led the international observational study that produced the new data.

"Overturning carries vast amounts of anthropogenic carbon deep into the ocean, helping to slow global warming," said co-author Penny Holliday of the National Oceanography Center in Southampton, U.K. "The largest reservoir of this anthropogenic carbon is in the North Atlantic."

"Overturning also transports tropical heat northward," Holliday said, "meaning any changes to it could have an impact on glaciers and Arctic sea ice. Understanding what is happening, and what may happen in the years to come, is vital."

Scientists from 16 research institutions from seven countries collaborated on the new study. They published their peer-reviewed findings Feb. 1 in Science.

"I cannot say enough about the importance of this international collaboration to the success of this project," Lozier said. "Measuring the circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic is incredibly challenging so we definitely needed an 'all hands on deck' approach."

This paper is the first from the $32 million, five-year initial phase of the OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) research project, in which scientists have deployed moored instruments and sub-surface floats across the North Atlantic to measure the ocean's overturning circulation and shed light on the factors that cause it to vary. Lozier is lead investigator of the project, which began in 2014.

"As scientists, it is exciting to learn that there are more pieces to the overturning puzzle than we first thought," said co-author Johannes Karstensen of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, in Germany.

"Though the overturning in the Labrador Sea is smaller than we expected, we have learned that this basin plays a large role in transporting freshwater from the Arctic," Karstensen said. "Continued measurements in that basin will be increasingly important," as the Arctic changes unexpectedly.

The new paper contains data collected over a 21-month period from August 2014 to April 2016.

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A trip to the USA is incomplete without visiting its national parks - Economic Times

A trip to the USA is incomplete without visiting its national parks  Economic Times

Contributed by Hal Amen From the frigid peaks of Gates of the Arctic's Brooks Range to the subtropical wetlands of Florida's Everglades, visitors to the 59 ...



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Some Serious Ultimate Sailing - Scuttlebutt Sailing News

Some Serious Ultimate Sailing  Scuttlebutt Sailing News

by Craig Leweck, Scuttlebutt While words carry the story of our sport, imagery brings it to life. But when the logistics to get the shot go beyond the usual, a lot has ...



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Happening this week, Feb. 1-7 - St. Augustine Record

Happening this week, Feb. 1-7  St. Augustine Record

GTM Research Reserve celebrates 20 yearsGuana Tolomato Matanzas National Estuarine Research Reserve will provide an overview of its annual ...



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Sindhs climate migration report launched at policy dialogue - The News International

Sindhs climate migration report launched at policy dialogue  The News International

Oxfam in Pakistan in collaboration with IUCN Pakistan organised a dialogue on climate change in Sindh to support the government's efforts in managing climate ...



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Penang green lung turned into dumpsite - Nation - The Star Online

Penang green lung turned into dumpsite - Nation  The Star Online

GEORGE TOWN: Part of a 20ha mangrove swampland, the last green lung in Batu Maung, has now become a dumping ground for construction and industrial ...



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Groundbreaking primate study co-authored by local anthropologist - Hannibal.net

Groundbreaking primate study co-authored by local anthropologist  Hannibal.net

Book published by Cambridge University Press is first of its kind about primates, examining how they interact in various habitats and how food availability ...



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UA Conservationist Helps Water-Loving Feline Survive - Arizona Public Media

UA Conservationist Helps Water-Loving Feline Survive  Arizona Public Media

Fishing cats of Southeast Asia are threatened by loss of habitat.



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DEP warns developer about cutting mangroves on Hutchinson Island in St. Lucie County - TCPalm

DEP warns developer about cutting mangroves on Hutchinson Island in St. Lucie County  TCPalm

Ladyko Design Group is building Sunset Beach, with 43 oceanfront homes, on South Hutchinson Island in St. Lucie County.



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Davos 2019: World Bank Steps Up Commitment of $200bn to Global Climate Finance - Proshare Nigeria Limited

Davos 2019: World Bank Steps Up Commitment of $200bn to Global Climate Finance  Proshare Nigeria Limited

The World Bank is stepping up its commitment to climate finance globally, to the tune of $200bn.



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Don’t be fooled by social media—wild animals make terrible pets - National Geographic

Don’t be fooled by social media—wild animals make terrible pets  National Geographic

Exotic pets might seem appealing, but the reality is often smelly, difficult, and sometimes dangerous.



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PICS: Rescue swimmers, police save Durban teen stabbed at Umgeni River - News24

PICS: Rescue swimmers, police save Durban teen stabbed at Umgeni River  News24

Quick action by Durban police and rescuers has probably saved the life of an 18-year-old man who was stabbed while collecting plastic bottles near the Umgeni ...



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Group sounds alarm as industrial dumping shrinks last mangrove forest in Batu Maung - Malay Mail

Group sounds alarm as industrial dumping shrinks last mangrove forest in Batu Maung  Malay Mail

GEORGE TOWN, Jan 30 ― The last mangrove swamp in Batu Maung here is now under threat of being turned into a dumpsite as tracts of the land were filled ...



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Denmark funds mangrove reforestation in Rakhine - Myanmar Times

Denmark funds mangrove reforestation in Rakhine  Myanmar Times

A Five-year plan to replant mangrove forests is being undertaken on the Rakhine State coast with the help of the Danish government, a Forest Department ...



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Getting boats to children who have to swim to school - BBC News

Getting boats to children who have to swim to school  BBC News

Imagine if going to school meant swimming and wading through water and mangroves, your school books tied up in a plastic bag over your head. All the while ...



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DeSantis reveals spending plan for Everglades fixes - Tampa Bay Times

DeSantis reveals spending plan for Everglades fixes  Tampa Bay Times

Florida's new governor on Tuesday unveiled a spending plan to begin fixing the state's troubled waters while announcing efforts to change the way U.S. army ...



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Five migrants dead, 130 missing after boats sink near Djibouti - Aljazeera.com

Five migrants dead, 130 missing after boats sink near Djibouti  Aljazeera.com

According to witnesses, the boats carrying migrants faced large waves, eventually buckled under excessive load.



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Mangrove Review: Students and faculty contribute to on-campus publication - Entertainment & Lifestyle - Eagle News

Mangrove Review: Students and faculty contribute to on-campus publication - Entertainment & Lifestyle  Eagle News

The small books left around the university library and scattered across campus have a purpose: they are a student-run journal, the Mangrove Review.



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Int’l luxury cruise ship sailing thru' Sundarbans - The Daily Star

Int’l luxury cruise ship sailing thru' Sundarbans  The Daily Star

International luxury cruise ship carrying tourists anchored at the Mongla port yesterday and is now visiting the Sundarbans, the largest mangrove forest in the ...



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NCH Thailand's Mangrove Reforestation Activity to Celebrate Its 100th Anniversary - WLNS

NCH Thailand's Mangrove Reforestation Activity to Celebrate Its 100th Anniversary  WLNS

BANGKOK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan 23, 2019--NCH Thailand as part of NCH's Global CSR initiatives in celebration of NCH 100 th year anniversary and in ...



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Hail damage likely cause of Port Stephens estuary mangrove dieback, DPI say - Port Stephens Examiner

Hail damage likely cause of Port Stephens estuary mangrove dieback, DPI say  Port Stephens Examiner

DPI say the most likely cause of the gradual dying of a huge swathe of mangroves inside the Port estuary is hail damage.



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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Once-abundant sea stars imperiled by disease along West Coast


The combination of ocean warming and an infectious wasting disease has devastated populations of large sunflower sea stars once abundant along the West Coast of North America in just a few years, according to research co-led by the University of California, Davis, and Cornell University published Jan. 30 in the journal Science Advances.

"At one time plentiful in nearshore waters, the sunflower sea stars right now cannot be found off the California coast and are rare into Alaska," said Drew Harvell, Cornell professor of ecology and evolutionary biology, a co-lead author. "Numbers of the sea stars have stayed so low in the past three years, we consider them endangered in the southern part of their range, and we don't have data for northern Alaska."

Since 2013, sea star wasting disease has brought about massive mortality in multiple sea star species from Mexico to Alaska. The East Coast has not been immune, as the disease has affected the shores from New Jersey to New England.

CLIMATE CHANGE A LIKELY FACTOR

Diego Montecino-Latorre, a wildlife epidemiologist with the UC Davis One Health Institute and a co-lead author, said the sunflower sea star continues to decline even in the deepest ocean and it is not recovering in the same way as the intertidal Ochre star.

"This is likely because this disease has many hosts, and other species that tolerate the pathogen better may spread it to the sunflower star," he said.

Global warming due to a changing atmosphere is likely a major factor.

"The heat wave in the oceans -- a product of increasing atmospheric temperatures -- is exacerbating the sea star wasting disease," said Harvell, a fellow at Cornell's Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future. "It's a lethal disease, and when you add a higher temperature to that, it kills faster, causing a bigger impact."

CASCADING EFFECTS

Fisheries depend on nearshore kelp forests to form a healthy environment for fish and the broader oceanic ecosystem. With the demise of sunflower sea stars, sea urchin populations in some areas have exploded, substantially reducing the kelp, Harvell said.

The sunflower sea star is large, about the size of a manhole cover, and possesses an enormous appetite. It crawls over the seafloor like a robotic vacuum cleaner, munching on everything in its path.

"In California, Washington and parts of British Columbia, sunflower sea stars keep urchins under control," said Joseph Gaydos, senior author on the paper and director of UC Davis' SeaDoc Society program. "Without sunflower stars, urchin populations expand and threaten kelp forests and biodiversity. This cascading effect has a really big impact."

COUNTING STARS

Between 2006 and 2017, scientists and trained citizen scientists with Reef Environmental Education Foundation (REEF) conducted 10,956 roving-diver surveys from Southern California to Alaska. Before 2013, divers reported an abundance of sea stars, but between 2013 to 2017 the population collapsed.

Scientists from Simon Fraser University and the Hakai Institute confirmed the loss from remote Calvert Island in British Columbia. The ocean warming recorded at REEF locations corresponds to an increase in water temperature by up to 4 degrees Celsius that started in 2014.

Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration surveyed sunflower sea stars in thousands of deep trawls from Mexico to the Canadian border and recorded 100 percent decline in all states in deep water down to 1,000 meters.

Stanford University also contributed to this research. The study was supported by the National Science Foundation, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, NOAA and the Department of Commerce.

In mid-April, the University of California Press will release Harvell's book, "Ocean Outbreak: Confronting the Rising Tide of Marine Disease." It regards the oceanic epidemics impacting the food chain and proposes solutions to slow a looming global environmental disaster.



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Engineers program marine robots to take calculated risks

We know far less about the Earth's oceans than we do about the surface of the moon or Mars. The sea floor is carved with expansive canyons, towering seamounts, deep trenches, and sheer cliffs, most of which are considered too dangerous or inaccessible for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV) to navigate.

But what if the reward for traversing such places was worth the risk?

MIT engineers have now developed an algorithm that lets AUVs weigh the risks and potential rewards of exploring an unknown region. For instance, if a vehicle tasked with identifying underwater oil seeps approached a steep, rocky trench, the algorithm could assess the reward level (the probability that an oil seep exists near this trench), and the risk level (the probability of colliding with an obstacle), if it were to take a path through the trench.

"If we were very conservative with our expensive vehicle, saying its survivability was paramount above all, then we wouldn't find anything of interest," says Benjamin Ayton, a graduate student in MIT's Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics. "But if we understand there's a tradeoff between the reward of what you gather, and the risk or threat of going toward these dangerous geographies, we can take certain risks when it's worthwhile."

Ayton says the new algorithm can compute tradeoffs of risk versus reward in real time, as a vehicle decides where to explore next. He and his colleagues in the lab of Brian Williams, professor of aeronautics and astronautics, are implementing this algorithm and others on AUVs, with the vision of deploying fleets of bold, intelligent robotic explorers for a number of missions, including looking for offshore oil deposits, investigating the impact of climate change on coral reefs, and exploring extreme environments analogous to Europa, an ice-covered moon of Jupiter that the team hopes vehicles will one day traverse.

"If we went to Europa and had a very strong reason to believe that there might be a billion-dollar observation in a cave or crevasse, which would justify sending a spacecraft to Europa, then we would absolutely want to risk going in that cave," Ayton says. "But algorithms that don't consider risk are never going to find that potentially history-changing observation."

Ayton and Williams, along with Richard Camilli of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, will present their new algorithm at the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence conference this week in Honolulu.

A bold path

The team's new algorithm is the first to enable "risk-bounded adaptive sampling." An adaptive sampling mission is designed, for instance, to automatically adapt an AUV's path, based on new measurements that the vehicle takes as it explores a given region. Most adaptive sampling missions that consider risk typically do so by finding paths with a concrete, acceptable level of risk. For instance, AUVs may be programmed to only chart paths with a chance of collision that doesn't exceed 5 percent.

But the researchers found that accounting for risk alone could severely limit a mission's potential rewards.

"Before we go into a mission, we want to specify the risk we're willing to take for a certain level of reward," Ayton says. "For instance, if a path were to take us to more hydrothermal vents, we would be willing to take this amount of risk, but if we're not going to see anything, we would be willing to take less risk."

The team's algorithm takes in bathymetric data, or information about the ocean topography, including any surrounding obstacles, along with the vehicle's dynamics and inertial measurements, to compute the level of risk for a certain proposed path. The algorithm also takes in all previous measurements that the AUV has taken, to compute the probability that such high-reward measurements may exist along the proposed path.

If the risk-to-reward ratio meets a certain value, determined by scientists beforehand, then the AUV goes ahead with the proposed path, taking more measurements that feed back into the algorithm to help it evaluate the risk and reward of other paths as the vehicle moves forward.

The researchers tested their algorithm in a simulation of an AUV mission east of Boston Harbor. They used bathymetric data collected from the region during a previous NOAA survey, and simulated an AUV exploring at a depth of 15 meters through regions at relatively high temperatures. They looked at how the algorithm planned out the vehicle's route under three different scenarios of acceptable risk.

In the scenario with the lowest acceptable risk, meaning that the vehicle should avoid any regions that would have a very high chance of collision, the algorithm mapped out a conservative path, keeping the vehicle in a safe region that also did not have any high rewards -- in this case, high temperatures. For scenarios of higher acceptable risk, the algorithm charted bolder paths that took a vehicle through a narrow chasm, and ultimately to a high-reward region.

The team also ran the algorithm through 10,000 numerical simulations, generating random environments in each simulation through which to plan a path, and found that the algorithm "trades off risk against reward intuitively, taking dangerous actions only when justified by the reward."

A risky slope

Last December, Ayton, Williams, and others spent two weeks on a cruise off the coast of Costa Rica, deploying underwater gliders, on which they tested several algorithms, including this newest one. For the most part, the algorithm's path planning agreed with those proposed by several onboard geologists who were looking for the best routes to find oil seeps.

Ayton says there was a particular moment when the risk-bounded algorithm proved especially handy. An AUV was making its way up a precarious slump, or landslide, where the vehicle couldn't take too many risks.

"The algorithm found a method to get us up the slump quickly, while being the most worthwhile," Ayton says. "It took us up a path that, while it didn't help us discover oil seeps, it did help us refine our understanding of the environment."

In their long-term vision, the researchers hope to use such algorithms to help autonomous vehicles explore environments beyond Earth.

"If we went to Europa and weren't willing to take any risks in order to preserve a probe, then the probability of finding life would be very, very low," Ayton says. "You have to risk a little to get more reward, which is generally true in life as well."

This research was supported, in part, by Exxon Mobile, as part of the MIT Energy Initiative, and by NASA.



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Seas may be rising faster than thought

A new Tulane University study questions the reliability of how sea-level rise in low-lying coastal areas such as southern Louisiana is measured and suggests that the current method underestimates the severity of the problem.

Relative sea-level rise, which is a combination of rising water level and subsiding land, is traditionally measured using tide gauges. But researchers Molly Keogh and Torbjörn Törnqvist argue that in coastal Louisiana, tide gauges tell only a part of the story.

Tide gauges in such areas are anchored an average of 20 meters into the earth rather than at the ground surface. "As a result, tide gauges do not record subsidence occurring in the shallow subsurface and thus underestimate rates of relative sea-level rise," said Keogh, a fifth year PhD student and lead author of the study.

"This study shows that we need to completely rethink how we measure sea-level rise in rapidly subsiding coastal lowlands" said Törnqvist, Vokes Geology Professor in the Tulane School of Science and Engineering.

The study, published in the open-access journal Ocean Science, says that while tide gauges can accurately measure subsidence that occurs below their foundations, they miss out on the shallow subsidence component. With at least 60 percent of subsidence occurring in the top 5 meters of the sediment column, tide gauges are not capturing the primary contributor to relative sea-level rise.

An alternative approach is to measure shallow subsidence using surface-elevation tables, inexpensive mechanical instruments that record surface elevation change in wetlands. Coastal Louisiana already has a network of more than 300 of these instruments in place. The data can then be combined with measurements of deep subsidence from GPS data and satellite measurements of sea-level rise, Keogh said.

Rates of relative sea-level rise obtained from this approach are substantially higher than rates as inferred from tide-gauge data. "We therefore conclude that low-elevation coastal zones may be at higher risk of flooding, and within a shorter time horizon, than previously assumed," Keogh said.

She said the research has implications for coastal communities across the globe.

"Around the world, communities in low-lying coastal areas may be more vulnerable to flooding than we realized. This has implications for coastal management, city planners and emergency planners. They are planning based on a certain timeline, and if sea level is rising faster than what they are planning on, that's going to be a problem."

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation.

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Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Engineers program marine robots to take calculated risks

We know far less about the Earth’s oceans than we do about the surface of the moon or Mars. The sea floor is carved with expansive canyons, towering seamounts, deep trenches, and sheer cliffs, most of which are considered too dangerous or inaccessible for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV) to navigate.

But what if the reward for traversing such places was worth the risk?

MIT engineers have now developed an algorithm that lets AUVs weigh the risks and potential rewards of exploring an unknown region. For instance, if a vehicle tasked with identifying underwater oil seeps approached a steep, rocky trench, the algorithm could assess the reward level (the probability that an oil seep exists near this trench), and the risk level (the probability of colliding with an obstacle), if it were to take a path through the trench.  

“If we were very conservative with our expensive vehicle, saying its survivability was paramount above all, then we wouldn’t find anything of interest,” Ayton says. “But if we understand there’s a tradeoff between the reward of what you gather, and the risk or threat of going toward these dangerous geographies, we can take certain risks when it’s worthwhile.”

Ayton says the new algorithm can compute tradeoffs of risk versus reward in real time, as a vehicle decides where to explore next. He and his colleagues in the lab of Brian Williams, professor of aeronautics and astronautics, are implementing this algorithm and others on AUVs, with the vision of deploying fleets of bold, intelligent robotic explorers for a number of missions, including looking for offshore oil deposits, investigating the impact of climate change on coral reefs, and exploring extreme environments analogous to Europa, an ice-covered moon of Jupiter that the team hopes vehicles will one day traverse.

“If we went to Europa and had a very strong reason to believe that there might be a billion-dollar observation in a cave or crevasse, which would justify sending a spacecraft to Europa, then we would absolutely want to risk going in that cave,” Ayton says. “But algorithms that don’t consider risk are never going to find that potentially history-changing observation.”

Ayton and Williams, along with Richard Camilli of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, will present their new algorithm at the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence conference this week in Honolulu.

A bold path

The team’s new algorithm is the first to enable “risk-bounded adaptive sampling.” An adaptive sampling mission is designed, for instance, to automatically adapt an AUV’s path, based on new measurements that the vehicle takes as it explores a given region. Most adaptive sampling missions that consider risk typically do so by finding paths with a concrete, acceptable level of risk. For instance, AUVs may be programmed to only chart paths with a chance of collision that doesn’t exceed 5 percent.

But the researchers found that accounting for risk alone could severely limit a mission’s potential rewards. 

“Before we go into a mission, we want to specify the risk we’re willing to take for a certain level of reward,” Ayton says. “For instance, if a path were to take us to more hydrothermal vents, we would be willing to take this amount of risk, but if we’re not going to see anything, we would be willing to take less risk.”

The team’s algorithm takes in bathymetric data, or information about the ocean topography, including any surrounding obstacles, along with the vehicle’s dynamics and inertial measurements, to compute the level of risk for a certain proposed path. The algorithm also takes in all previous measurements that the AUV has taken, to compute the probability that such high-reward measurements may exist along the proposed path.

If the risk-to-reward ratio meets a certain value, determined by scientists beforehand, then the AUV goes ahead with the proposed path, taking more measurements that feed back into the algorithm to help it evaluate the risk and reward of other paths as the vehicle moves forward.

The researchers tested their algorithm in a simulation of an AUV mission east of Boston Harbor. They used bathymetric data collected from the region during a previous NOAA survey, and simulated an AUV exploring at a depth of 15 meters through regions at relatively high temperatures. They looked at how the algorithm planned out the vehicle’s route under three different scenarios of acceptable risk.

In the scenario with the lowest acceptable risk, meaning that the vehicle should avoid any regions that would have a very high chance of collision, the algorithm mapped out a conservative path, keeping the vehicle in a safe region that also did not have any high rewards — in this case, high temperatures. For scenarios of higher acceptable risk, the algorithm charted bolder paths that took a vehicle through a narrow chasm, and ultimately to a high-reward region.

The team also ran the algorithm through 10,000 numerical simulations, generating random environments in each simulation through which to plan a path, and found that the algorithm “trades off risk against reward intuitively, taking dangerous actions only when justified by the reward.”

A risky slope

Last December, Ayton, Williams, and others spent two weeks on a cruise off the coast of Costa Rica, deploying underwater gliders, on which they tested several algorithms, including this newest one. For the most part, the algorithm’s path planning agreed with those proposed by several onboard geologists who were looking for the best routes to find oil seeps.

Ayton says there was a particular moment when the risk-bounded algorithm proved especially handy. An AUV was making its way up a precarious slump, or landslide, where the vehicle couldn’t take too many risks.

“The algorithm found a method to get us up the slump quickly, while being the most worthwhile,” Ayton says. “It took us up a path that, while it didn’t help us discover oil seeps, it did help us refine our understanding of the environment.”

“What was really interesting was to watch how the machine algorithms began to ‘learn’ after the findings of several dives, and began to choose sites that we geologists might not have chosen initially,” says Lori Summa, a geologist and guest investigator at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who took part in the cruise.  “This part of the process is still evolving, but it was exciting to watch the algorithms begin to identify the new patterns from large amounts of data, and couple that information to an efficient, ‘safe’ search strategy.” 

In their long-term vision, the researchers hope to use such algorithms to help autonomous vehicles explore environments beyond Earth.

“If we went to Europa and weren’t willing to take any risks in order to preserve a probe, then the probability of finding life would be very, very low,” Ayton says. “You have to risk a little to get more reward, which is generally true in life as well.”

This research was supported, in part, by Exxon Mobile, as part of the MIT Energy Initiative, and by NASA.



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What Are Your Research Group’s Scientific Core Values?

At institutional level a mission statement and set of core values are important to drive decisions and growth. As I have worked with an amazing team at LUMCON to build and innovate, refining and focusing on the mission and values continually prove invaluable. They serve as a consistent reminder of who we strive to be and what we hope to accomplish.

And now I’m wondering if my lab and research group should adopt the same. I’ve worked hard to try to establish a specific lab culture for my group and to give us focus but this remains far from a set of operating principles.

As far as the research mission, I’ve taken a lot of inspiration recently from the Hedgehog Concept and hitting the sweet spot.

Adapted for scientific use…

  1. Understand the science and research you are truly passionate about.
  2. Identify the science and research you do better than anyone else or perhaps better the science and research that is unique to you
  3. Determine the science and research that leads to the greatest impact as you choose to define it (e.g. publications, citations, conservation or policy impact, public knowledge, significant contribution to knowledge, etc.)

And to be honest, scientists most often focus 2 and 3 and forget completely to fully engage what they are passionate about. By the way, I am thinking my sweet spot is at the of energetics, body size, and biodiversity.

As I set squarely in the middle of my scientific career, I am thinking more about re-engaging my passion for science. With this thinking, I have set toward developing a set of core values for my research group, a set of operating principles that drives the actions and behaviors of myself, research scientists, graduate students, technicians, and undergraduates who all work in my lab.

As a first crack, I came up with these

  1. Do awesome science with awesome people. And to make that happen…
  2. Awesome science requires safe spaces for awesome people.
  3. Awesome science is open and inclusive. Awesome people are diverse.
  4. Awesome science stems from being hard on ideas but easy on awesome people.
  5. Awesome science require playfulness.
  6. Awesome science stems from the pursuit of answers above the pursuit of papers, prestige, and payment

And now I want your feedback! What are your lab’s core principles? What is missing from this list?

Hedgehog Photograph By Lars Karlsson (Keqs) – Own work, CC BY-SA 2.5, http://bit.ly/2SdNvnB



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Why do beaked whales return to a Navy sonar range despite frequent disturbance?


Using data from underwater robots, scientists have discovered that beaked whales prefer to feed within parts of a Navy sonar test range off Southern California that have dense patches of deep-sea squid. A new study published in the Journal of Applied Ecology, shows that beaked whales need these prey hotspots to survive, and that similar patches do not exist in nearby "sonar-free" areas.

For decades, the U.S. Navy has used high-powered sonar during anti-submarine training and testing exercises in various ocean habitats, including the San Nicolas Basin off Southern California. Beaked whales are particularly sensitive to these kinds of military sonars, which sometimes result in mass stranding events. Following legal action from environmental activists related to these risks, the Navy modified some training activities, created "sonar-free" areas, and spent more than a decade and tens of millions of dollars trying to find ways to reduce the harm to beaked whales and other mammals.

The new research, led by Brandon Southall at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and Kelly Benoit-Bird at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, aimed to better understand why whales keep returning to the test range despite the risks.

The researchers equipped an underwater robot with echosounders to measure the abundance, density, and sizes of deep-sea squids in different parts of the Navy test range, as well as in nearby waters. They also developed an "energy budget" for beaked whales, showcasing the costs -- in time and calories -- of hunting for squid. This helped the researchers estimate how many dives the whales needed to make in order to get enough food to survive in different areas.

"Beaked whales work very hard to obtain their food. They are essentially living paycheck to paycheck," said Benoit-Bird. Unlike many baleen whales with significant energy reserves, beaked whales can't afford to expend too much energy on a dive that doesn't result in capturing many squid. In areas where the concentration of prey is low, the beaked whales must work harder and expend more calories -- making reproduction and raising young that much more challenging. Some of the areas under study were so poor in terms of prey that whales likely could not meet their basic energetic requirements if they only fed there.

"Despite how things might look from the surface, the deep sea is not uniform," Benoit-Bird added. "There are pockets of wealth where squid are abundant, and beaked whales know exactly how to find those hot spots." It turns out that a portion of the Navy test range off Southern California encompasses one of these hot spots -- an area rich in squid.

In fact, squid were 10 times more abundant higher in the area preferred by the whales. In this preferred area, the whales could get enough food by making just one dive a day. In a nearby sonar-free area (established with the idea that beaked whales could shelter in these areas while the sonar tests were underway) the whales would need to make between 22 and 100 dives per day to get enough food -- something that would be difficult or impossible to do.

"Our findings, based on a novel integration of active sonar imaging and passive listening technologies, have multiple management implications," explained Southall. "They provide direct information to the Navy and federal regulators to better manage important and impacted habitat areas off California. And they give us new data on foraging ecology for population-level models of disturbance that have been at the heart of recent debate and litigation over spatial management and proposed sonar exclusion zones."

This study is the first to link habitat quality with beaked whale behavior in such fine spatial scales. It also demonstrates that scientists can't assess the quality of deep-sea habitats by simply making measurements at the ocean surface, or even by measuring the physical and chemical properties of the deep ocean. Direct measurements of the prey environment at the depths where animals are feeding, coupled with observations of when and where animals are foraging, are critical.

Until now, collecting such detailed data, even over small time and space scales, was virtually impossible. The researchers are now working on tools that will help them study predators and prey over longer time periods, and in other areas where the Navy operates high-powered sonar. Similar field-research and modeling techniques could also be used to assess the potential impacts of other human activities that may disturb ocean animals, such as shipping traffic or offshore oil and gas development.



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Monday, January 28, 2019

Not only do Gulf of Aqaba corals survive climate change but their offspring may too

While coral reefs worldwide are suffering severe damage due to global warming and ocean acidification, there is one place in the world where they are surviving these harsh conditions -- the Gulf of Aqaba in the Red Sea.

The researchers who discovered this phenomenon are now reporting a new, promising finding: even when parent corals from the Gulf of Aqaba experience increased temperatures and ocean acidification stress during the peak reproductive period, they are not only able to maintain normal physiological function, but also have the same reproductive output and produce offspring that function and survive as well as those which were produced under today's ambient water conditions.

While only one species has been tested for one reproductive cycle so far, this is a success story that shows that corals in the Gulf of Aqaba may persist through climate change, according to Jessica Bellworthy, a doctoral student who carried out the study in the laboratory of Prof. Maoz Fine, of Bar-Ilan University's Mina and Everard Goodman Faculty of Life Sciences, along with scientists from Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL). The study was recently published in the Journal of Experimental Biology.

Using a Red Sea Simulator developed in Israel, the researchers tightly manipulated water conditions in Prof. Fine's lab at an 80-aquarium, high-tech facility located at the Interuniversity Institute for Marine Science in Eilat to mimic the ocean under a severe climate change scenario.

"To our surprise but also joy, there were no detected differences in the number or the quality of the offspring produced under ocean acidification and warming scenario compared to the present day ambient control conditions," says Bellworthy.

Previous work in Prof. Fine's lab showing the corals' resistance focused solely on their adult life stages. This led the researchers to investigate the impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the reproductive performance of the adult population and on next generation corals.

"Corals around the world are already suffering mass mortality as a result of anomalously high water temperatures," says Bellworthy. "In the Gulf of Aqaba we have noted a population that withstands thermal stress way beyond what is expected in this century. Furthermore, this study begins to show that this thermal resistance not only applies during the adult life phase but also during the early life stages, which are often considered much more vulnerable and sensitive. This adds support to previous suggestions from our lab and others that the Gulf of Aqaba may be a refuge for corals in the face of climate change."

Over the coming year the researchers plan to run a similar experiment combining global and local harmful factors, such as ocean warming and heavy metal pollution, to investigate how local factors affect the ability of coral reefs to withstand climate change.

Story Source:

Materials provided by Bar-Ilan University. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.



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Sunday, January 27, 2019

Ogoni Cleanup: Forest institute to re-establish mangroves - Daily Trust

Ogoni Cleanup: Forest institute to re-establish mangroves  Daily Trust

Minister of Environment, Hassan Suleiman Zarma, has said that the Forestry Institute of Nigeria Ibadan, (FRIN), has a very crucial role to play in the cleanup of ...



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Conserving Australia's Future - Pro Bono Australia

Conserving Australia's Future  Pro Bono Australia

Rich Gilmore is the Australian director of The Nature Conservancy, and is fighting to conserve and restore Australia's precious landscape by involving sectors ...



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Decomposing body found in Cedros - Trinidad News

Decomposing body found in Cedros  Trinidad News

LAUREL V WILLIAMS. POLICE are calling for the public to help them to identify the body of a decomposing man found in a coconut estate near mangroves in ...



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Commanding Waterfront View In Sarasota For $4.6 Million - Sarasota, FL Patch

Commanding Waterfront View In Sarasota For $4.6 Million  Sarasota, FL Patch

Commanding Waterfront View In Sarasota For $4.6M - Sarasota, FL - The home includes a signature staircase and private elevator between the first and second ...



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Body in the mangrove: Cops need ID help - Trinidad & Tobago Express

Body in the mangrove: Cops need ID help  Trinidad & Tobago Express

THE decomposing body of a man was discovered in a mangrove in Icacos, Cedros on Sunday.



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Dump The Body In Mangroves! Insensitive Man Advices Driver Who Ran Over Two Pups While Reversing Car - Indiatimes.com

Dump The Body In Mangroves! Insensitive Man Advices Driver Who Ran Over Two Pups While Reversing Car  Indiatimes.com

On Tuesday, a driver while reversing his Toyota Innova ran over two puppies who were sleeping under it. Mirror Now reported that the incident took place in ...



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People migrating from Sundarbans as climate threat soars - National Herald

People migrating from Sundarbans as climate threat soars  National Herald

People in the Sundarbans have started migrating towards cities with increasing vulnerability from climate change and shrinking opportunities for livelihood, ...



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Penn Virginia Co. (PVAC) Major Shareholder Mangrove Partners Master Fund, Purchases 30,000 Shares - Baseball Daily News

Penn Virginia Co. (PVAC) Major Shareholder Mangrove Partners Master Fund, Purchases 30,000 Shares  Baseball Daily News

Penn Virginia Co. (NASDAQ:PVAC) major shareholder Mangrove Partners Master Fund, bought 30000 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that ...



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Oil firm fuels sustainable future - manilastandard.net

Oil firm fuels sustainable future  manilastandard.net

Petron Corp., the country's leading oil company, said it continues to uphold its commitment to ensuring the sustainability of the communities it serves as it ...



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Mumbai: Instead of rescuing it, heartless man instructs driver to throw injured puppy in mangroves - Times Now

Mumbai: Instead of rescuing it, heartless man instructs driver to throw injured puppy in mangroves  Times Now

Mumbai: An unfeeling incident was avoided on Tuesday because of the discretion of a gardener and a social worker. If it were not for their principled thoughts, ...



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Chico Rite Aid pharmacy robbed, employee assaulted - KRCRTV.COM

Chico Rite Aid pharmacy robbed, employee assaulted  KRCRTV.COM

Chico police are searching for two suspects Friday after a Rite Aid pharmacy was robbed for various medications. Around 7:15 Friday, two adult men entered the ...



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Marine conservation gives life to the ocean, boosts livelihoods - The Standard

Marine conservation gives life to the ocean, boosts livelihoods  The Standard

Amina Ahmed Mohammed has watched men prepare fishing gear and take to the waters in Lamu to fend for their families since she was a child.



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NCH Thailand's Mangrove Reforestation Activity to Celebrate Its 100th Anniversary - Associated Press

NCH Thailand's Mangrove Reforestation Activity to Celebrate Its 100th Anniversary  Associated Press

BANGKOK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan 23, 2019--NCH Thailand as part of NCH's Global CSR initiatives in celebration of NCH 100 th year anniversary and in ...



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Andrew Otazo walking Miami Marathon with 30 pounds of trash - Miami Herald

Andrew Otazo walking Miami Marathon with 30 pounds of trash  Miami Herald

Andrew Otazo, armed with a knife, gloves, a trash grabber, industrial-strength garbage bags and a powerful mission, showed up at the Bear Cut Nature Preserve ...



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KAYAKING EXPLORATION OF A REMOTE MANGROVE ISLAND, AND FLAMINGO WATCHING - ILoveQatar.net

KAYAKING EXPLORATION OF A REMOTE MANGROVE ISLAND, AND FLAMINGO WATCHING  ILoveQatar.net

ONLY NOW! -20% DISCOUNT! Don't miss your chance to explore Qatar's mangroves with us, this is the best time!



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Thursday, January 24, 2019

Conservation 20/20 remains focused - cape-coral-daily-breeze.com | News, sports, community info. - Cape Coral Daily Breeze

Conservation 20/20 remains focused - cape-coral-daily-breeze.com | News, sports, community info.  Cape Coral Daily Breeze

Taxpayers who support Lee County's 20/20 Conservation program — and that, literally, is most of us— may see another 660 acres or so of...



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Mexican regulators say new oil refinery lacked permits - WRAL.com

Mexican regulators say new oil refinery lacked permits  WRAL.com

Mexican regulators say a new Gulf coast oil refinery spearheaded by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador did not have appropriate permits when ...



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Winning Photos from 2018 Ocean Art Underwater Photo Competition - My Modern Met

Winning Photos from 2018 Ocean Art Underwater Photo Competition  My Modern Met

A look at the winners of the 7th annual Ocean Art Underwater Photo Competition, which highlights the best underwater photography around the world.



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Climate change creates a new migration crisis for Bangladesh - National Geographic

Climate change creates a new migration crisis for Bangladesh  National Geographic

The country, already grappling with the Rohingya crisis, now faces a devastating migration problem as hundreds of thousands face an impossible choice ...



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Research reveals new species are evolving fastest in Antarctica - Phys.Org

Research reveals new species are evolving fastest in Antarctica  Phys.Org

New research published in Nature overturns previous theories about how the stunning biodiversity of the oceans evolved, with important implications for ...



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NCH Thailand's Mangrove Reforestation Activity to Celebrate Its 100th Anniversary - Odessa American

NCH Thailand's Mangrove Reforestation Activity to Celebrate Its 100th Anniversary  Odessa American

BANGKOK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan 23, 2019--NCH Thailand as part of NCH's Global CSR initiatives in celebration of NCH 100 th year anniversary and in ...



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Meet the 2019 TED Fellows and Senior Fellows - TED Blog

Meet the 2019 TED Fellows and Senior Fellows  TED Blog

The TED Fellows program turns 10 years old in 2019 -- and to mark this important milestone, we're excited to kick off the year of celebration by announcing the ...



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Pamalakaya bats for restoration of mangroves, coral reefs for Manila Bay rehabilitation - Manila Bulletin

Pamalakaya bats for restoration of mangroves, coral reefs for Manila Bay rehabilitation  Manila Bulletin

A local fisherfolk group urged the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) to use the ₱47-billion Manila Bay rehabilitation fund to restore ...



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Mangroves cut prior to boat show on Virginia Key to be replaced - Miami Today

Mangroves cut prior to boat show on Virginia Key to be replaced  Miami Today

Written by John Charles Robbins on January 22, 2019. Mangroves cut prior to boat show on Virginia Key to be replaced. A section of Mangrove trees lost to a ...



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Hail damage likely cause of Port Stephens estuary mangrove dieback, DPI say - Port Stephens Examiner

Hail damage likely cause of Port Stephens estuary mangrove dieback, DPI say  Port Stephens Examiner

DPI say the most likely cause of the gradual dying of a huge swathe of mangroves inside the Port estuary is hail damage.



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Sydney drug syndicate: cooking ‘sludge’ in a clan meth lab - The Sydney Morning Herald

Sydney drug syndicate: cooking ‘sludge’ in a clan meth lab  The Sydney Morning Herald

The last time Stephen Gavanas was behind bars, his brother's body was found face down, with ankles bound, in the mangroves of the Parramatta River.



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Mangrove Partners Master Fund, Purchases 30,000 Shares of Penn Virginia Co. (PVAC) Stock - Fairfield Current

Mangrove Partners Master Fund, Purchases 30,000 Shares of Penn Virginia Co. (PVAC) Stock  Fairfield Current

Penn Virginia Co. (NASDAQ:PVAC) major shareholder Mangrove Partners Master Fund, purchased 30000 shares of Penn Virginia stock in a transaction dated ...



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Scientists drill to record depths in West Antarctica


A team of scientists and engineers has for the first time successfully drilled over two kilometres through the ice sheet in West Antarctica using hot water. This research will help understand how the region will respond to a warming climate.

The 11-person team has been working on the Rutford Ice Stream for the last 12 weeks in freezing temperatures at low as minus 30 degrees Celsius. On Tuesday 8 January, following a 63 hour continuous round-the-clock drilling operation, the team broke through to the sediment 2152 metres below the surface.

A string of instruments were fed through the borehole which will record water pressure, ice temperature and deformation within the ice around it.

The project, which is named BEAMISH, has been 20 years in the planning, and was attempted in 2004 without success.

Lead scientist Dr Andy Smith from British Antarctic Survey (BAS), who is still working on the Rutford Ice Stream, says:

"I have waited for this moment for a long time and am delighted that we've finally achieved our goal. There are gaps in our knowledge of what's happening in West Antarctica and by studying the area where the ice sits on soft sediment we can understand better how this region may change in the future and contribute to global sea-level rise."

The team has now drilled two holes (with the second completed on 22 January) and plan to be working on the ice until mid-February 2018. Further work will now continue at a second site a few kilometres away.

Dr Keith Makinson, a physical oceanographer at BAS, says:

"We know that warmer ocean waters are eroding many of West Antarctica's glaciers. What we're trying to understand is how slippery the sediment underneath these glaciers is, and therefore how quickly they might flow off the continent into the sea. This will help us determine future sea level rise from West Antarctica with more certainty."

Story Source:

Materials provided by British Antarctic Survey. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.



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Wednesday, January 23, 2019

'Silent slip' along fault line serves as prelude to big earthquakes, research suggests

Big earthquakes appear to follow a brief episode of "shallow mantle creep" and "seismic swarms," suggests new research at Oregon State University that offers an explanation for the foreshocks observed prior to large temblors.

Published today in Nature Geoscience, the findings are an important step toward understanding the relationship and interactions between aseismic slip and seismic slip. Also known as silent slip or slow slip, aseismic slip is displacement along a fault that occurs without notable earthquake activity.

The research involved the Blanco Transform Fault off the coast of Oregon; a transform fault is a plate boundary at which the motion is mainly horizontal.

Under the sea, transform faults connect offset mid-ocean "spreading centers," places at seafloor ridges where new oceanic crust is formed through volcanic activity and gradually moves away from the ridge.

"Slow slip directly triggers seismic slip -- we can see that," said co-corresponding author Vaclav Kuna, a graduate student in geology and geophysics in OSU's College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences. "The findings are very interesting and may have some broader implications for understanding how these kinds of faults and maybe other kinds of faults work."

Researchers deployed 55 seismometers on the ocean bottom on and around the Blanco fault for a year.

"It's a very seismically active fault that generates significant earthquakes at higher rates than the majority of faults on land, making it ideal for studying the process of earthquake generation," Kuna said.

The seismometer deployment -- from September 2012 to October 2013 -- resulted in the detection of more than 1,600 earthquakes at the Blanco Ridge, a 130-kilometer segment of the Blanco fault that served as the study area.

Two distinct asperities -- basically rough edges -- along the ridge rupture roughly every 14 years with quakes in the magnitude 6 range.

"Our work was enabled by recent advances in long-term ocean-bottom seismometer deployments and is only the second major project targeting an oceanic transform fault," said co-corresponding author John Nabelek, professor of geology and geophysics at OSU.

At its southernmost point, the Blanco Transform Fault is about 100 miles from Cape Blanco, Oregon's westernmost location, and the fault runs northwest to a point about 300 miles from Newport.

The Cascadia Subduction Zone, a fault that extends from British Columbia to northern California, lies between the Blanco fault and the coastline. The fault was the site of a magnitude 9 earthquake in 1700 and is building up stress where the Juan de Fuca Plate is sliding underneath the North American Plate.

Some scientists predict a 40 percent chance of another magnitude 9 or bigger quake occurring along the fault in the next 50 years.

"The Blanco fault is only 400 kilometers offshore," Nabelek said. "A slip on Blanco could actually trigger a Cascadia Subduction slip; it would have to be a big one, but a big Blanco quake could trigger a subduction zone slip."

The Earth is put together in layers beneath the crust, the outermost skin that varies in thickness from about 40 miles (continental crust at mountain ranges) to about 2 miles (oceanic crust at mid-ocean ridges).

The boundary between the crust and the next layer, the upper mantle, is known as the Moho.

"We see slow, aseismic slips that occur at depth in the fault beneath the Moho and load the shallower part of fault," Nabelek said. "We can see a relationship between mantle slip and crust slip. The slip at depth most likely triggers the big earthquakes. The big ones are preceded by foreshocks associated with creep."

Kuna explains that the layers have different levels of seismic "coupling," the ability of a fault to lock at asperities and accumulate stress.

"The crust is fully coupled -- all slip is released in a seismic way," Kuna said. "Fault in the shallow mantle is partly coupled, partly not, and releases slip both seismically and aseismically. The deep mantle is fully creeping, uncoupled, with no earthquakes. But the fault is loaded by this creep from beneath -- it's all driven from beneath. Our results also show that an aseismic fault slip may trigger earthquakes directly, which may have implications for active faults on land."

The National Science Foundation supported this research.



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An icy forecast for ringed seal populations


Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 12.8 percent per decade -- 2012 had the lowest amount of summer ice on record. The drastic change has numerous implications for Arctic ecosystems, from increased shipping -- the first commercial container ship crossed the Arctic Ocean in fall 2018 -- to changing food webs.

But for ringed seals across the Arctic, it's not the lack of ice that will hurt them most -- it's the lack of snow.

While ringed seals (Phoca hispida) rely on stable sea ice in order to birth pups and raise them, they also rely on sufficiently deep snow drifts in which to dig lairs, which are much like snow caves and can mean the difference between life and death. The lairs provide insulation from extreme cold and offer some protection from predators, keeping their young ones out of view from wandering polar bears -- their main predator -- until they are weaned. Killer whales, walruses, wolves, dogs, wolverines, sharks, and even gulls prey on pups. Along with providing shelter, there are breathing holes within the lair that allow direct access to the waters below for the seals to hunt polar and Arctic cod and a variety of planktonic crustaceans necessary for survival. During years with poor snow cover, pups can be born on the surface of the ice, but mortality of these pups that weigh only ten pounds at birth is extremely high.

Scientists have already observed and predicted that high pup mortality rates are linked to poor environmental conditions like early ice breakup and low snow. Researchers have now gone a step further by coupling these hypotheses with forecasts of future spring snow and ice conditions, developing a mathematical model, and following it to some stark conclusions for populations off the Amundsen Gulf and Prince Albert Sound in Canada.

The paper appears today in the Ecological Society of America's journal Ecological Applications.

"It was surprising to see just how little snow is forecast to be available for the construction of lairs in the future," said lead author Jody Reimer, PhD candidate at the University of Alberta. She was surprised both by the magnitude of the projected population declines -- ranging from 50 to 99 percent by the year 2100 -- as well as by the fact that these declines appear to be largely driven by insufficient snow on the ice, rather than early ice breakup.

In addition to overall seal population declines, the model projects that there will be a smaller proportion of juveniles relative to adults and pups over time, as fewer pups make it to their teenage years. In general, each successive generation gets a little bit smaller, and the effects of this are seen most acutely in the juvenile stages, especially for a long-lived ringed seals with lifespans up to 43 years.

Reimer also says these results and predictions would not have been made without the new mathematical model, which revealed glaring issues with previous observations, namely adult annual survival.

"When we put the previously published demographic estimates into our model, it predicted dramatic population declines that are inconsistent with the fact that ringed seals still exist in that area," Reimer said. Ringed seals are considered a somewhat cryptic species, being notoriously difficult to study. Estimates of survival and reproductive rates have been collected over the years, but these estimates had not been combined into a population-level model until now.

Ringed seals' dependence on sea ice and snow makes them good indicators of climate change. They are the most abundant Arctic seal, with a huge geographic distribution, and are thus exposed to a wide range of climate change impacts. Additionally, changes in the community composition of Arctic marine systems can be seen through their diet as they shift their prey in response to what is available.

So, as an indicator species, ringed seals provide information on the health of Arctic marine ecosystems. But this information relies on the ability to detect the large scale changes resulting from climatic changes. Furthermore, future ecological challenges must be anticipated. For ringed seals in particular, given their sensitivity to snow cover, a better understanding -- and modelling -- of factors affecting adult survival is essential for assessing population viability as the Arctic climate changes.

It appears that Reimer and her colleagues are well on their way to anticipating these changes -- "I think this is an example of an instance in which modelling can really help with the interpretation of field data and help inform future field endeavors."



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Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Antarctic krill population contracts southward as polar oceans warm


The population of Antarctic krill, the favourite food of many whales, penguins, fish and seals, shifted southward during a recent period of warming in their key habitat, new research shows.

Antarctic krill are shrimp-like crustaceans which occur in enormous numbers in the cold Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica. They have a major role in the food web and play a significant role in the transport of atmospheric carbon to the deep ocean.

Important krill habitats are under threat from climate change, and this latest research -- published today (Jan. 21, 2019) in Nature Climate Change -- has found that their distribution has contracted towards the Antarctic continent. This has major implications for the ecosystems that depend on krill.

An international team of scientists, led jointly by Dr Simeon Hill at the British Antarctic Survey and Dr Angus Atkinson at Plymouth Marine Laboratory, analysed data on the amount of krill caught in nets during scientific surveys. The data covered the Scotia Sea and Antarctic Peninsula -- the region where krill are most abundant. The team found that the centre of the krill distribution has shifted towards the Antarctic continent by about 440 km (4° latitude) over the last four decades.

The team took great care to account for background noise in the data. Many factors, in addition to long-term change, influence the amount of krill caught in any one net. Even after accounting for these factors the team found a consistent trend throughout the data, indicating a substantial change in the krill population over time.

The study provides support for a proposed mechanism behind these changes -- an increasingly unfavourable climate leading to fewer young krill replenishing the population. This has led to a smaller population dominated by older and larger krill.

Dr Hill said: "Our analysis reveals a species facing increasing difficulty in replenishing itself and maintaining high numbers at the northern edge of the Southern Ocean."

"These northern waters have warmed and conditions throughout the Scotia Sea have become more hostile, with stronger winds, warmer weather and less ice. This is bad news for young krill."

Dr Atkinson added: "This is a nice example of international cooperation in Antarctica. It is only when we put all our data together that we can look at the large scales of space and time to learn how populations of key polar species are responding to rapid climate change."

Dr Hill continued: "The surveys which provided these data weren't intended to monitor change over large spatial scales or over 90 years. The fact that we see a signal amongst all of this noise is an indication of how much the population has changed over time. These changes appear to be driven by the global climate. Continued precautionary management of the krill fishery is important, but is no substitute for global action on climate change."

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For zombie microbes, deep-sea buffet is just out of reach


Far below the ocean floor, sediments are teeming with bizarre zombie-like microbes. Although they're technically alive, they grow in slow motion, and can take decades for a single cell to divide -- something their cousins at the surface do in a matter of minutes. A new study from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) is beginning to pick apart how they survive by examining their source of "food" -- nearby molecules of organic carbon. The study helps further our understanding of the limitations of life on Earth and could help inform how life might exist on other planets.

In a paper published in the January 21 issue of the journal Nature Geoscience, WHOI scientists examined long core samples taken aboard the R/V Knorr and R/V Revelle in the middle of the north Atlantic and south Pacific oceans. By analyzing the core's sediments using high intensity X-rays, the researchers found that they contained low levels of organic carbon molecules -- bits of ancient proteins from long-dead organisms -- preserved in sediment up to 25 million years old.

Under normal circumstances, carbon like this would be snatched up quickly by microbes. There's not a lot of it out there in deep mid-ocean sediments of the Atlantic and Pacific, making them tough places for microorganisms to survive. Any bacteria that stumbled across it would be treated to a tiny feast. But for some reason, the microbes nearby aren't taking full advantage of this windfall.

"From a pure chemistry perspective, they should be able to metabolize all of that carbon, but they're not," says Emily Estes, lead author on the paper, who is currently a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Delaware. At the time of the study, Estes was a PhD student in the MIT-WHOI Joint Program, working directly with co-author Colleen Hansel.

The presence of carbon is unusual, she adds, because the sediments contain oxygen as well. Usually, the types of microbes that thrive there would use both chemicals. Oxygen acts as a sort of "fuel" for metabolism and other biochemical reactions inside the organisms; carbon provides raw materials for those reactions, and lets the cells rebuild their own structures and organelles. But in the deep sediments, the balance between the two is oddly lopsided.

It's unclear exactly why excess organic carbon remains, Estes says, but her study has ruled out at least one existing explanation. Previous research suggested that the microbes weren't "eating" excess carbon because it was in a form they couldn't metabolize. Estes and her colleagues, however, found that the organic carbon is in a form that is usable to microbes and has essentially the same structure throughout the sediment. Instead, she says, a more plausible answer is that the carbon has fused to minerals in the sediments, making it unavailable. She also offers a third and likely most dominant mechanism: that the microbes can't physically reach the excess carbon. Deep under the ocean floor, this food source is very sparsely distributed, and the microbes too sluggish to do much searching.

"From a microbe's point of view, the carbon may be just out of reach. When you're living in a state without much energy to spare, like these organisms, it may just be too difficult to swim or crawl around to find it," says Colleen Hansel, a microbial geochemist at WHOI.

"What particularly excites me is that this research may help us understand some of the limitations on life in general, whether it's under the sea floor, or on another planet or moon," she adds. "When considering the conditions that may support extraterrestrial microbial life, the physical environment may be just as important as the chemical one. Microbes living in an environment that has islands of nutrients that are physically separated and with low diffusion simply can't make use of that energy source to grow."

This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, the NSF Center for Dark Energy Biosphere Investigations and NSF Division of Ocean Sciences.

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Sallie “Penny” Chisholm awarded the 2019 Crafoord Prize

MIT Institute Professor Sallie “Penny” Chisholm of the departments of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Biology is the recipient of the 2019 Crafoord Prize.

Announced on Jan. 17, Chisholm was awarded the prize “for the discovery and pioneering studies of the most abundant photosynthesizing organism on Earth, Prochlorococcus.”

Prochlorococcus is a type of phytoplankton found in the ocean that is able to photosynthesize like plants on land.  The process of photosynthesis is responsible for the oxygen humans breathe, which makes it critical to life on Earth. Prochlorococcus accounts for approximately 10 percent of all ocean photosynthesis, which draws carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, provides it with oxygen, and forms the base of the food chain.

While the organism is the most abundant photosynthesizer on the planet (the total amount of Prochlorococcus on Earth has been estimated to be 3*1027, or 3,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000), it wasn’t until the mid-1980’s that Prochlorococcus was discovered by Chisholm and colleagues at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. The reason the organism remained unknown for so long can be attributed to its small size. The tiny bacteria is half of a micrometer in size, 1/100 the width of a human hair, making it the smallest photosynthesizing organism.

Since its discovery, Chisholm and her team have found that although each cell has only 2,000 genes, the species as a whole has more than 80,000 different genes in its gene pool, which is four times more than the genetic makeup of humans. This vast diversity of genes distributed among the global population contributes to why Prochlorococcus is able to exist prominently in various environments containing different levels of light, heat, and nutrients.

Chisholm, who has been at MIT since 1976, now studies how Prochlorococcus interacts with various components of seawater and other microorganisms found in the ocean; its role in shaping the ocean ecosystem over evolutionary time; and how its populations may shift in response to climate change.

In April, Chisholm delivered a TED Talk that dove deeper into the properties of Prochlorococcus, comparing the organism’s genetic diversity to iPhone apps, and expanded on the the beauty of this microorganism as the smallest living thing that can convert solar energy and carbon dioxide into fuel through photosynthesis. Understanding its simple design could aid in efforts to engineer artificial photosynthesis machines — reducing our dependency on fossil fuels.  

Prochlorococcus has even inspired Chisholm to educate future generations of scientists through a series of children’s books called the “Sunlight Series,” with co-author and illustrator Molly Bang. The series describes the Earth’s natural processes in layman’s terms and through imagery. While none of Chisholm’s books mention Prochlorococcus by name, Chisholm says the simplicity of Prochlorococcus compelled her to create the series.

Chisholm will present her prize lecture in Sweden at Lund University on May 13, and will receive her prize at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences prize award ceremony on May 15, in the presence of H. M. King Carl XVI Gustaf and H. M. Queen Silvia of Sweden.

The Crafoord Prize is awarded in partnership between the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the Crafoord Foundation, with the academy responsible for selecting the Crafoord Laureates. Awards are presented in one of four disciplines each year: mathematics and astronomy, geosciences, biosciences, or polyarthritis (such as rheumatoid arthritis).



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Famous freak wave recreated in laboratory mirrors Hokusai's 'Great Wave'

The Draupner wave was one of the first confirmed observations of a freak wave in the ocean; it was observed on the 1st of January 1995 in the North Sea by measurements made on the Draupner Oil Platform.

Freak waves are unexpectedly large in comparison to surrounding waves. They are difficult to predict, often appearing suddenly without warning, and are commonly attributed as probable causes for maritime catastrophes such as the sinking of large ships.

The team of researchers set out to reproduce the Draupner wave under laboratory conditions to understand how this freak wave was formed in the ocean. They successfully achieved this reconstruction by creating the wave using two smaller wave groups and varying the crossing angle -- the angle at which the two groups travel.

Dr Mark McAllister at the University of Oxford's Department of Engineering Science said: 'The measurement of the Draupner wave in 1995 was a seminal observation initiating many years of research into the physics of freak waves and shifting their standing from mere folklore to a credible real-world phenomenon. By recreating the Draupner wave in the lab we have moved one step closer to understanding the potential mechanisms of this phenomenon.'

It was the crossing angle between the two smaller groups that proved critical to the successful reconstruction. The researchers found it was only possible to reproduce the freak wave when the crossing angle between the two groups was approximately 120 degrees.

When waves are not crossing, wave breaking limits the height that a wave can achieve. However, when waves cross at large angles, wave breaking behaviour changes and no longer limits the height a wave can achieve in the same manner.

Prof Ton van den Bremer at the University of Oxford said: 'Not only does this laboratory observation shed light on how the famous Draupner wave may have occurred, it also highlights the nature and significance of wave breaking in crossing sea conditions. The latter of these two findings has broad implications, illustrating previously unobserved wave breaking behaviour, which differs significantly from current state-of-the-art understanding of ocean wave breaking.'

To the researchers' amazement, the wave they created bore an uncanny resemblance to 'The Great Wave off Kanagawa' -- also known as 'The Great Wave' -- a woodblock print published in the early 1800s by the Japanese artist Katsushika Hokusai. Hokusai's image depicts an enormous wave threatening three fishing boats and towers over Mount Fuji which appears in the background. Hokusai's wave is believed to depict a freak, or 'rogue', wave.

The laboratory-created freak wave also bears strong resemblances with photographs of freak waves in the ocean. The researchers hope that this study will lay the groundwork for being able to predict these potentially catastrophic and hugely damaging waves that occur suddenly in the ocean without warning.

Experiments were carried out in the FloWave Ocean Energy Research facility at the University Of Edinburgh.

Dr Sam Draycott at the University of Edinburgh said: 'The FloWave Ocean Energy Research Facility is a circular combined wave-current basin with wavemakers fitted around the entire circumference. This unique capability enables waves to be generated from any direction, which has allowed us to experimentally recreate the complex directional wave conditions we believe to be associated with the Draupner wave event.'

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